There are two rules that PBOC use to find the appropriate interest rate level, according to Governor Yi Gang of PBOC talked at his PIIE speech in April 2023. First, Taylor’s rule is important for PBOC when focusing on short term countercyclical management. Second, for long term, the focus is shifted to optimal trajectory andContinue reading “Looking into China’s Monetary Policy – Interest Rate Policy”
Category Archives: economics
Forecast Stock Price with ChatGPT?
After OpenAI released ChatGPT in late 2022, the tool quickly becomes a trending tool with the potentials to apply anywhere. GPT refers to Generative Pre-trained Transformer, which is is an artificial neural network model based on transformer architecture. This is introduced by Vaswani et al in 2017. GPT models are pre-trained with huge volume textContinue reading “Forecast Stock Price with ChatGPT?”
Money Supply Might Explain Inflation Surge
Started from mid-2021, the inflation surge became a global issue in the post-Covid years. From March 2021, the US annual inflation rate jumped to a higher level and became persistent in the high level for relatively long period of time. The 12-month seasonally adjusted CPI percentage change is rising from 2.6% in March 2021 toContinue reading “Money Supply Might Explain Inflation Surge”
Not All Fed Chairs’ Communications Affect Market Equally
Fed issues a statement to public after each Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC). The statement provides some brief information about the rationale behind the rate decision. The ex-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke started the commitment to provide more transparency on rate decision in April 2011 (ABC News, Arnall 2011), when he started to hold press conferenceContinue reading “Not All Fed Chairs’ Communications Affect Market Equally”
Slowdown in Global Productivity
“Once electronics were small enough to be used in almost all industries, their effect on productivity vanished.” – Pablo Azar This article summarizes the main points from Azar’s 2022 paper of ‘Moore’s Law and Economic Growth’ . Azar uses his novel dataset to study the how the size of semiconductor impact GDP growth. The globalContinue reading “Slowdown in Global Productivity”
Eddy Zhang 